The new precariousness of safe seats

The traditional pendulum analogy used to describe the safety of seats in terms of margins for the ALP or Coalition doesn't work for a system where more than two parties can win seats, and increasingly that is proving the case in our elections.

The federal electorate of Melbourne, and this election other inner city seats like Melbourne Ports, Higgins and Batman, and the rise of Xenophon in South Australia are showing that the two party duopoly is being challenged and perhaps starting to break down.

While initially this process was limited to the Greens challenging in formerly safe ALP inner city seats in Melbourne and Sydney, recent state elections in NSW and Victoria, and this current federal election, have extended the challenge to Greens versus Liberals or Nationals in safe seats, and Xenophon challenging the Liberals in SA.

This emerging trend for serious challenges of duopoly control of what have previously been considered safe seats means that voters in those seats have to be engaged by the duopoly party that has taken them for granted.

This is an improvement in the quality and engagement of our democracy as it increases the number of voters who `matter' in elections. Given the number of voters who are alienated from the process that can only be a good thing.

The undermining of the concept of a safe seats also means a possible increase in the diversity and proportionality of parliament making it more representative. This is minimal at present, but the number of formerly safe seats being challenged is increasing.

We are moving slowly towards a multiparty system, despite our flawed, duopoly controlled system, and again this is something that would work against voter alienation. This slow move towards a multiparty system is probably the best we can hope for in terms of improvement in our democracy in the short term in the absence of actual democratic reform.

Long term we should work towards the introduction of Mixed Member Proportional which would largely overcome the issue of safe seats limiting the focus of elections to swinging voters in marginal seats, and making parliament proportional.